Civilization Dynamics
TR

Resources

The raw material pulled from the planet in a year - its mass and its value at the point of extraction.
OverviewDetailed AnalysisMethodology

Planetary impact: the mass balance

A third of the 85 Gt extracted is added net to the technosphere; the rest dissipates as heat, CO₂ and waste. Human-made mass overtook all living biomass in 2020.

The mass pulled from the ground each year does not vanish. Some leaves the system as heat, CO₂, waste and food; the rest is added permanently to the technosphere as concrete, steel, brick and asphalt. But the “visible” mass is only half the story: the energy spent per tonne, the waste rock moved and the planetary threshold crossed are also on Layer 0's balance sheet.

Technosphere
All the mass humans have made and added permanently to the planet: concrete, asphalt, metal, brick, glass, plastic, machines and infrastructure. In short, the human-made world.
Biosphere
The total mass of all living things on the planet: trees, grasses, animals, fungi, bacteria. Measured here by carbon weight.

The fate of what is extracted

A single year's total extraction, split by permanence: the stock-capable part (concrete, steel, brick) and the part that dissipates within the year.

66%
34%
Stock-capable · 56 Gton/yrDissipates within the year · 29 Gton/yr (heat · CO₂ · waste · food)
1.100 Gton
Accumulated technosphere stock
extracted so far and still in use
+30 Gton
Annual net growth
added to stock - aged out
136 ton
Stock per capita
technosphere mass ÷ population
%35
Net permanent share
annual net growth ÷ total extraction

What the technosphere is made of

The mass composition of the 1.100 Gt accumulated so far. Concrete and aggregate are the overwhelming majority.

Non-metallic minerals (concrete, aggregate, brick, asphalt) · %85 · 935 GtonMetals (mostly iron & steel) · %10 · 110 GtonWood · %3 · 33 GtonPlastics (growing fast) · %2 · 16 Gton

The thermodynamic cost: energy and waste rock

The economy does not destroy the resource; it moves it from high concentration to irreversible disorder. That move has two measurable costs: a steadily falling energy return and a steadily rising volume of waste rock.

Energy return, EROI

How many units of energy are returned for one unit invested. As it falls, a larger share of the fuel goes into extracting the fuel itself.

US crude oil, 1930100:1
US oil + gas, 197030:1
Global oil + gas, 199026:1
Global oil + gas, 201018:1
Canadian tar sands, 2010s4:1

World average copper ore grade

1900%2,5
1990%1,6
2015%0,6

At 0.6% grade and 88% recovery, 190 tonnes of ore are milled per tonne of refined copper; the waste rock stripped to reach the ore is usually 2-5 times more.

Deep time: formation time ↔ consumption time

Humanity is liquidating geological depth layers in reverse chronological order. Near-surface strata renew on the solar cycle; the deeper you go, the further formation time passes beyond human perception, while consumption time is instantaneous.

Surface biosphere (0 - 100 m)Formation time: Seasonal - annual

Photosynthesis, soil, forest mass, surface aquifers. Synchronised with the solar cycle, renewable.

Sedimentary basins (0.1 - 5 km)Formation time: Tens - hundreds of million years

Coal (mostly Carboniferous, 300-360 Mya), crude oil and gas source rocks, limestone beds.

Deep lithosphere / Precambrian (>5 km, very old)Formation time: 1 - 3.8 billion years

Banded iron formations (1.8-2.5 Bya), platinum-group layered intrusions, hydrothermal copper vents, deep rare-earth reserves.

A year of fossil-fuel use carries energy equal to about 400 years of net primary production of all current land vegetation. Formation is geological, consumption is instantaneous.

Technosphere ↔ biosphere balance

The dry weight of human-made objects has, for the first time in history, overtaken all living biomass on the planet.

All living biomass (dry weight)1,1 trillion tonnes
Anthropogenic mass (technosphere)1,1 trillion tonnes

crossed over ≈ 2020 (± 6 years); the technosphere roughly doubles every 20 years. Concrete and aggregate are about three quarters of the technosphere's mass; the rest is brick, asphalt, metal and plastic.

The total mass of plastic ever made (8 Gt) exceeds the combined mass of all land and marine animals on Earth.

Planetary boundaries

Nine processes that hold the Earth system in balance; how many have moved outside the “safe operating space”.

6 of 9 boundaries transgressed
Transgressed
Climate changeBiosphere integrityLand-system changeBiogeochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorus)Freshwater changeNovel entities (chemicals, plastics)
Still in the safe zone
Ocean acidificationAtmospheric aerosol loadingStratospheric ozone depletion

The physical base grows quietly: each year the technosphere gains new mass equal to 2,7% of everything accumulated before it. Formation is geological, consumption is instantaneous, and that mass cannot be put back.

Layer 0 methodology · §12 →