Civilization Dynamics
The Civilization Record
TR
The planetary substrate, 12,000 years

The Civilization Record

The long-run background quantities the four layers stand on: population, land, energy, climate, water, matter, each a series back to 10,000 BCE.
PopulationLand AreaEnergyClimate & AtmosphereWaterMatter & BiosphereMethodology

Climate and Atmosphere

As humanity grew it changed not only the land surface and the energy system, but also the composition of the atmosphere.

For tens of thousands of years the amount of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere varied within narrow bands inside natural cycles. With the start of farming, the human effect on the atmosphere began to become visible; in the industrial age, fossil-fuel use took that effect to a completely different scale.

Coal, oil and natural gas moved carbon that had accumulated underground over millions of years into the atmosphere in a short time. The transformation of forests and other ecosystems added to this. CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations rose; the global average temperature rose relative to the pre-industrial period.

A vintage ink engraving of sun rays over the curve of the Earth and red air currents circling in the atmosphere, a forest on one side and an industrial city on the other.

Today tens of billions of tonnes of new CO₂ are added to the atmosphere each year, and the amount accumulated since the industrial age reaches trillions of tonnes. So the atmosphere records not just the visible mark of civilisation on the planet but its mark accumulated at a global scale.

Atmospheric CO₂
ppm
10.000 BCE: 2642025 CE: 424
Atmospheric CH₄
ppb
10.000 BCE: 6202025 CE: 1.930
Global mean temperature anomaly
°C (vs 1850-1900)
10.000 BCE: -0,202025 CE: 1,3
Annual anthropogenic CO₂ emissions (fossil and industry)
Gt CO₂ / yr
10.000 BCE: 02025 CE: 37,5 (log)
Cumulative anthropogenic CO₂ (since 1750, fossil and industry)
Gt CO₂
10.000 BCE: 02025 CE: 1.800 (log)

Worth knowing

Atmospheric CO₂ is higher than at any point in the last 3 million years (the Pliocene).

The current rate of CO₂ rise is about a hundred times the fastest known natural increase.

Ruddiman's early-anthropogenic hypothesis: early farming (forest clearing, rice paddies) may already have nudged CO₂ and CH₄ up in the mid-Holocene, contested.

Total annual greenhouse-gas emissions are around 53 Gt CO₂-equivalent (GWP-100).

The Record's methodology →
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